![]() ![]() Viruses continue to mutate randomly, so non-lethal versions can become lethal again, as with the flu. The adaptive landscape the viruses face continuously drops toward "open range." The COvid19s and our immune systems are not in a Red Queen race. Why is not clear, but any protection from this group is only temporary. Immunity fades fairly quickly, even to the same exact virus. The nasty things about Covid19, as with coronaviruses in general, are: ![]() In which case, the higher contagion could actually be helpful - if it drives out more lethal variants. There does seem to be a fair bit of evidence that this variant leads to less serious cases. no N95 or better mandate for healthcare workers). Our gov/healthcare system still hasn't officially acknowledged that COVID-19 is truly airborne (e.g. It's almost as if the last 2 years have taught us nothing. Nov 29: No confirmed cases of omicron, monitoring 156 travellers ĭec 6: 2 Alberta schools have been notified Īnd obviously based on the fact that Alberta has the second-lowest vaccination rate of any province (please note the NWT/Yukon are even lower but they're territories) I'm reasonably certain there's more omicron floating around than we officially know about. And we may end up back in April 2020 levels of lockdown before this is over. Scotland handled successive waves better, but will probably still have a very bad winter (our border with England is porous, as in non-existent). My current expectation is that Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid will-have already-fucked up the response to Omicron and that the English NHS will come dangerously close to (or may actually) collapse by Christmas. It has not gone unnoticed that a strain that is twice as transmissible is much deadlier than a strain with twice the immediate mortality rate, because exponential growth in the number of cases means it ends up with many more people to kill. I'm bringing this up because this is the shit that the Johnson government should be doing, and on past form will probably copy badly in about 2 weeks (by which time it'll be 5-7 doublings down the line, i.e. ![]() moving to review the situation daily as of 8/12, rather than weekly (hitherto)Īnd get your booster shot (or first/second shot) the instant you're eligible for it Scottish government is advising all businesses to go back to work-from-home, everyone should mask up and socially distance in public, and everyone should take a lateral flow test before going out in public for any purpose-work, pub, shopping, meeting people It's not clear how deadly it is yet, but seems to be comparable to Delta. However, Omicron is confirmed to be more able to evade acquired natural immunity after infection by other strains-if you didn't get jabbed and think having had Beta or Delta protects, you're in for a nasty surprise Scope for vaccine immunity escape is not yet known, although hopefully it's not huge. Omicron confirmed in 9 out of 14 health districts, community transmission highly likelyĭoubling time appears to be 2-3 days(!) with an R number significantly higher than 2 (!!) Some key points:ĩ9 confirmed Omicron cases in Scotland (pop. Probably very few of you track Nicola Sturgeon's weekly COVID briefings to the Scottish Parliament, but I find them very useful-unlike Boris Johnson there's zero bullshit and she seems to be listening to the scientists. I was supposed to be in Frankfurt by now, but my winter break-the first in three years-has been cancelled (thanks, Omicron!) and I'm still at home. ![]()
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